Vol. 1 | February 2026 | Toronto–Calgary Edition
My thought process on making the best decision—personally and financially
Data from TRREB • CREB • CMHC • StatsCan • Bank of Canada
Executive Summary
Four things we learned that changed how we think about buying
The Condo Trap
You need 29% appreciation in 5 years just to break even on a condo. Condo fees eat you alive—$45,000 over 5 years in Toronto. Even with optimistic appreciation, a $700K Toronto condo still loses $35K.
Basement Suite = The Key
$1,500–2,000/mo from a tenant turns a break-even into real profit. Every $500/mo in suite income = $30K saved over 5 years. A Calgary house with a $1,500/mo suite yields 48.6% ROI; Toronto at $2K/mo yields 30.2%.
Calgary First?
Half the capital needed, no land transfer tax, and 48.6% ROI with a suite vs 30.2% in Toronto. $85K less down payment, $1,487/mo cheaper monthly. Calgary approves housing in 4 months vs Toronto’s 25.
The Business Option
If staying in Toronto, renting saves $2,983/mo vs buying a $1M house. That freed-up capital could build $1M–$2M in 10 years through a business (taxed at just 12.2%) vs $704K from the house.
Section I
Toronto costs roughly 2× Calgary for equivalent housing
Fig. 1 — Current prices by property type, Toronto vs Calgary ($K, 2025)
| Metric | Toronto | Calgary |
|---|---|---|
| Avg home price | $1,068K | $554K |
| Detached benchmark | $760.5K | $727K |
| 2-Bed Condo | $653K | $304K |
| Price trend (2025) | -4.7% | -3-7% |
| Price-to-income | 8.4× | 4.8× |
| Property tax rate | 0.754% | 0.618% |
| Land transfer tax | Prov + Muni | NONE |
| Approval timeline | ~25 mo | ~4.2 mo |
| Municipal fees/unit | >$120K | ~$11K |
Section II
Apples to apples — detached vs detached, condo vs condo
Fig. 2 — Toronto vs Calgary by property type ($K, 2015–2025)
Fig. 3 — Total returns across asset classes, 2015–2025
Section III
Why prices moved the way they did — and why Toronto and Calgary diverged
Three forces explain nearly everything about Canadian housing prices over the last decade: interest rates, supply-side policy, and migration. Interest rates drove the national cycle. Supply-side differences explain why Calgary stayed affordable while Toronto didn’t. And immigration concentrated demand in Ontario while interprovincial migration boosted Alberta.
#1 Interest Rates
0.25% → 5.0%
Bank of Canada hiked from 0.25% to 5.0% (2022–2023), crushing buying power. Cuts to 2.25% by end of 2025 haven’t fully revived demand. This is the #1 driver of the national price cycle.
#2 Supply Differences
4 mo vs 25 mo
Calgary: fast approvals (~4 months), low fees (~$11K/unit), permissive zoning = record construction. Toronto: slow approvals (~25 months), high fees (~$120K+/unit) = collapsing starts.
#3 Migration & Population
435K+
High immigration (435K+ in 2025) concentrated demand in Ontario. Interprovincial migration favored Alberta recently, boosting Calgary demand while Toronto absorbed most newcomers.
| Policy | What It Did | Measured Impact | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Stress Test 2018+ |
Required borrowers to qualify at contract rate + 2%, reducing max loan amounts | ~40,000 fewer sales in first year; 50–60% of decline in mortgage originations | Demand |
| Foreign Buyer Tax / Ban 2016 BC, 2023 Federal |
Taxed then banned non-Canadian residential purchases (exemptions for 4+ unit buildings) | ~6% price decline in high-foreign-buyer areas; foreign transactions 9.5% → 1.7% | Demand |
| Empty Homes Taxes Vancouver 2017, Toronto 2021 |
Penalized vacant properties with annual tax; required declarations | 67% drop in declared vacancies (Vancouver); ~1,006 units converted to tenanted | Supply |
| Calgary Rezoning 2024 |
Allowed townhomes & fourplexes as-of-right city-wide | Record starts (~27,000 in 2025, ~70% multi-family); rents ~$400 below national avg | Supply |
| Ontario Bill 23 2022 |
Aimed to speed supply; as-of-right up to 3 units per lot, reduced charges | Limited real-world impact; condo starts at lowest since 2009 | Supply |
| GST Removed on Rental 2023 |
Eliminated GST on new purpose-built rental construction | Boosted rental starts; part of Housing Accelerator Fund (4-units as-of-right) | Supply |
Supply-side policy is the biggest differentiator between Toronto and Calgary. Calgary builds fast and cheap — 4-month approvals, $11K fees, as-of-right fourplexes. Toronto takes 25 months to approve and charges $120K+ per unit. The result: Calgary hit record construction in 2025 while Toronto condo starts collapsed to a 16-year low.
Section IV
Half your mortgage payment is just interest — here’s where every dollar actually goes
5% rate • 25-year amortization • 20% down
Fig. 4 — Monthly cost breakdown by scenario
| Monthly Cost | TO Condo $700K |
TO House $1M |
CG 2BR Condo $350K |
CG House $575K |
CG House $700K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage (P&I) | $3,274 | $4,677 | $1,637 | $2,690 | $3,274 |
| Principal (~50%) | ~$1,637 | ~$2,339 | ~$819 | ~$1,345 | ~$1,637 |
| Interest (~50%) | ~$1,637 | ~$2,338 | ~$818 | ~$1,345 | ~$1,637 |
| Property Tax | $250 | $250 | $250 | $250 | $250 |
| Maintenance / Condo Fees | $750 | $150 | $350 | $150 | $150 |
| Total Monthly (Gross) | $4,274 | $5,077 | $2,237 | $3,090 | $3,674 |
| Basement Suite Income | N/A | -$2,000 | N/A | -$1,500 | -$1,500 |
| Net Monthly (with suite) | $4,274 | $3,077 | $2,237 | $1,590 | $2,174 |
Notice: A Toronto condo costs $4,274/mo while a Calgary entire house costs $3,090/mo. You pay more for a condo in Toronto than for a whole house in Calgary.
Note on P&I Split
Our mortgage principal & interest payments split roughly 50/50 at current rates. This means only half your mortgage payment builds equity—the other half is pure interest cost (sunk). Suite income assumptions: $2,000/mo in Toronto (avg 2-bed basement, Richmond Hill/Markham area) and $1,500/mo in Calgary.
Section V
Why condos don’t work as a path to wealth
5% rate • 25-year amortization • 20% down • 5-year hold
We ran two appreciation scenarios across all four property types. At 14% appreciation over 5 years (conservative), every single scenario loses money. At 29% (optimistic), condos still lose money. Only houses with strong appreciation break even. The numbers are stark and unforgiving—condo fees create a drag that appreciation simply cannot overcome.
Fig. 5 — 5-year profit/loss by scenario ($K, 20% down)
| 5-Year Sunk Costs | TO Condo $700K |
TO House $1M |
CG 2BR Condo $350K |
CG House $575K |
CG House $700K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Interest | $98,211 | $140,302 | $49,110 | $80,700 | $98,211 |
| Buying Closing Costs | $35,000 | $50,000 | $5,250 | $8,625 | $10,500 |
| Selling Closing Costs | $45,150 | $64,500 | $22,575 | $37,088 | $45,150 |
| Property Taxes | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 |
| Maintenance / Fees | $45,000 | $9,000 | $21,000 | $9,000 | $9,000 |
| Total Sunk (29% scenario) | $238,361 | $278,802 | $112,935 | $150,413 | $177,861 |
$750/mo in condo fees = $45,000 gone in 5 years. That $36K maintenance gap between a condo ($45K) and a house ($9K) is almost exactly the difference in outcomes. Condo fees are the silent killer of your investment returns.
Section V-B
Same strategy, two very different risk profiles
5% rate • 25-year amortization • 20% down • 10-year hold
Both cities benefit from a 10-year hold: appreciation compounds (2.3× the gain) while sunk costs grow linearly, and the P&I split shifts from 50/50 to 55/45 in your favour. But the fundamental question is different in each city. Calgary’s $1,856/mo condo is cheaper than renting from day one—a rational buy. Toronto’s $3,841/mo condo costs $805/mo more than rent—a leveraged bet on appreciation. Over 10 years, that’s an $83K swing between cities.
5-Year vs 10-Year Profit
Fig. 5b — Toronto & Calgary condos: why time is everything
Buy vs Rent — Monthly Cost Over 10 Years
Fig. 5c — Fixed mortgage vs rising rent (3% annual increases)
5% Rule: Breakeven vs Actual Rent
Fig. 5d — Ben Felix 5% rule: buy zone vs rent zone
| Condo Comparison | TO 5yr (29%) |
TO 10yr (66%) |
CG 5yr (29%) |
CG 10yr (66%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down Payment | $140,000 | $140,000 | $70,000 | $70,000 |
| Monthly Cost | $3,841 | $3,841 | $1,856 | $1,856 |
| Comparable Rent | $3,036 | $3,036 | $1,908 | $1,908 |
| Premium / (Savings) vs Rent | +$805 | +$805 | ($52) | ($52) |
| Total Interest Paid | $79,530 | $142,920 | $39,780 | $71,460 |
| Total Sunk Costs | $231,080 | $378,820 | $99,420 | $169,390 |
| Appreciation | $203,000 | $462,000 | $101,500 | $231,000 |
| Principal Built (Equity) | $79,530 | $175,320 | $39,780 | $87,660 |
| Profit / (Loss) | ($28,080) | +$83,180 | +$2,080 | +$61,610 |
| Annualized ROI | — | 4.8% | 0.6% | 6.5% |
$83K
Swing between cities over 10 years
$43K TO premium + $40K CG savings
$805/mo
Toronto buying premium vs renting
Calgary: $52/mo cheaper to buy
19.2 vs 15.3
Price-to-rent ratio: TO vs CG
>20 = rent • 15–20 = grey • <15 = buy
| Rate Sensitivity (10yr, 66%) | Monthly Cost | 10-Yr Interest | Total Sunk | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% rate | $1,856 | $71,460 | $169,390 | +$61,610 |
| 4.0% rate | $2,008 | $97,140 | $195,070 | +$35,930 |
| 5.0% stress-test | $2,168 | $124,870 | $222,800 | +$8,200 |
| Framework | Toronto $700K Condo |
Calgary $350K Condo |
Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Rent Ratio (Price ÷ Annual Rent) | |||
| Purchase Price | $700,000 | $350,000 | — |
| Annual Rent | $36,432 | $22,896 | — |
| Ratio | 19.2 | 15.3 | >20 = rent • 15–20 = grey • <15 = buy |
| Ben Felix 5% Rule (Home Value × 5% ÷ 12) | |||
| Breakeven Rent | $2,917/mo | $1,458/mo | If rent > this, buying is cheaper |
| Actual Rent | $3,036/mo | $1,908/mo | — |
| Verdict | Borderline | Clearly Buy | CG rent is 31% above breakeven |
Two cities, two stories. Calgary is a rational purchase by every professional metric: cheaper than renting from day one, price-to-rent in the buy zone, and the 5% rule clearly says buy. Toronto is a leveraged bet on appreciation—you pay $805/mo more than a renter and need 66% appreciation over 10 years just to turn a profit. Calgary builds wealth through cost efficiency; Toronto only works if the market cooperates.
Section VI
A legal basement suite changes everything — from break-even to real profit
5% rate • 25-year amortization • 20% down • 29% appreciation • 5-year hold
Net Monthly Cost With Suite
Fig. 6 — Monthly housing cost after suite income
5-Year Profit by Suite Income
Fig. 7 — Cumulative profit at 29% appreciation
| Metric (29% apprec.) | Toronto $1M House | Calgary $575K House | Calgary $700K House | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No suite | $1.5K/mo | $2K/mo ★ | No suite | $1K/mo | $1.5K/mo ★ | No suite | $1K/mo | $1.5K/mo ★ | |
| Suite Income | — | $1,500 | $2,000 | — | $1,000 | $1,500 | — | $1,000 | $1,500 |
| Net Monthly Cost | $5,077 | $3,577 | $3,077 | $3,090 | $2,090 | $1,590 | $3,674 | $2,674 | $2,174 |
| 5-Year Profit | +$11K | +$101K | +$131K | +$16K | +$76K | +$106K | +$25K | +$85K | +$115K |
| ROI | 2.0% | 21.8% | 30.2% | 5.3% | 30.7% | 48.6% | 6.8% | 27.4% | 41.0% |
| Annualized ROI | 0.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% |
Every $500/mo from a tenant ≈ $30K added to your bottom line over 5 years. In Richmond Hill/Markham, 2-bed basements rent for $1,500–$2,400/mo (we use $2,000/mo as our Toronto estimate). Calgary basements average $1,500/mo. ★ = market rate used in our calculations.
Section VII
Best case: Detached house, 20% down, 29% appreciation, market-rate suite (Toronto $2K/mo, Calgary $1.5K/mo)
5% rate • 25-year amortization • 5-year hold
Fig. 8 — Head-to-head comparison: house + market-rate suite, 29% appreciation
| Metric | Toronto $1M | Calgary $575K | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down Payment | $200,000 | $115,000 | $85K less |
| Suite Income (market rate) | $2,000/mo | $1,500/mo | — |
| Net Monthly Cost (w/ suite) | $3,077 | $1,590 | $1,487/mo |
| Total Cash Invested (5yr) | $434,620 | $219,025 | $216K less |
| Net Sunk Costs (5yr) | $188,802 | $60,413 | $128K less |
| 5-Year Profit | $131,198 | $106,337 | TO +$25K |
| Annualized ROI | 5.4% | 8.2% | +2.8 pts |
$85K
Less down payment needed
$1,487
Monthly savings (Calgary)
1.5×
Better annualized ROI
Section VIII
The Rent + Invest + Business alternative
Housing figures: 5% rate • 25-year amortization • 20% down
If we rent a 2BR in Richmond Hill/Markham for $2,740/mo instead of buying a $1M house at $5,723/mo, we save $2,983/mo. That’s $258K in Year-1 capital (including freed-up down payment) that could fund a business. The small business tax rate of just 12.2% versus personal rates of 29–53% creates a compounding advantage that grows every year.
Fig. 9 — 10-year net worth across all paths ($K)
| 10-Year Scenario | Net Worth | Monthly |
|---|---|---|
| Buy $700K Condo | $502K | $3,759 |
| Buy $1M House | $704K | $5,723 |
| Rent + Invest | $953K | $2,740 |
| Business (Conservative) | $1,000K | $2,740 |
| Business (Moderate) | $1,500K | $2,740 |
| Business (Optimistic) | $2,000K | $2,740 |
Tax Advantage
12.2% small business rate vs 29–53% personal. Saves ~$35K/year — $356K over 10 years in tax savings alone.
LCGE
Up to $1,016,836 tax-free on sale of qualifying small business shares via the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption.
Capital Available
$258K Year-1 capital from freed-up down payment + monthly savings. Plus access to CSBFP loans up to $1.15M.
The business path is high-risk, high-reward. At $150K/year average, a business builds ~$1.5M over 10 years—more than double a $1M house ($704K). Even the conservative scenario ($1M) outperforms real estate. But 37–45% of Canadian businesses fail within 5 years, and $150K/year is far from guaranteed.
Section VIII-B
What if you paid it off in 10 years instead of 25?
5% rate • 10, 15, 20, 25-year amortizations compared • 20% down
Most people default to 25-year amortization because it minimizes monthly payments. But shorter amortizations save staggering amounts of interest: a 20-year term saves ~23%, a 15-year saves ~44%, and a 10-year saves ~64%. The tradeoff is higher monthly payments—but there’s a sweet spot for every budget. Here’s how all four common amortization periods compare.
Interest Saved
~64%
Across all scenarios, 10-year amortization eliminates roughly two-thirds of total interest paid compared to the standard 25-year term.
Toronto $1M House
$385K saved
Total interest drops from $603K to $218K. That’s nearly $400K that stays in your pocket instead of going to the bank.
Freedom Date
Year 10
Mortgage-free a full 15 years earlier. After year 10, suite income becomes pure positive cash flow with no mortgage to service.
| Scenario | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr | Jump vs 25yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TO House $1M | $4,677 | $5,281 | $6,326 | $8,488 | +$3,811 |
| CG House $575K | $2,690 | $3,037 | $3,637 | $4,881 | +$2,191 |
| CG House $700K | $3,274 | $3,697 | $4,428 | $5,942 | +$2,668 |
| CG 2BR Condo $350K | $1,637 | $1,848 | $2,214 | $2,972 | +$1,335 |
| Scenario | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr | Max Saved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TO House $1M | $603K | $467K | $339K | $219K | $384K |
| CG House $575K | $347K | $268K | $195K | $125K | $222K |
| CG House $700K | $422K | $326K | $237K | $153K | $269K |
| CG 2BR Condo $350K | $211K | $163K | $119K | $76K | $135K |
Fig. 10 — Total interest paid across amortization periods ($K)
Fig. 11 — Net monthly cost with suite income across amortization periods
After Year 10, it’s all gravy. Once the Calgary $575K house is mortgage-free, costs drop to just property tax + maintenance (~$500/mo). With a $1,600/mo basement suite, that’s roughly +$1,100/mo positive cash flow—the house literally pays you to live in it. The Toronto $1M house generates ~$1,600/mo positive cash flow post-mortgage with a $2,000/mo suite.
The tradeoff is real—but there are middle grounds. The 10-year payoff is aggressive (Calgary $575K jumps to $3,780/mo net). But a 15-year term only adds ~$950/mo while saving $152K in interest. A 20-year term adds just ~$347/mo and saves $79K. Pick the amortization that fits your budget—any reduction from 25 years saves serious money.
What you actually pay each month at each payoff speed, after suite income offsets
| Property | 25yr Gross |
25yr w/ Suite |
10yr Gross |
10yr w/ Suite |
Interest Saved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CG House $575K | $3,090 | $1,590 | $5,281 | $3,781 | $222K |
| CG House $700K | $3,674 | $2,174 | $6,342 | $4,842 | $269K |
| CG Condo $350K | $2,237 | N/A | $3,572 | N/A | $135K |
| TO House $1M | $5,077 | $3,077 | $8,888 | $6,888 | $384K |
All figures at 5% stress-test rate, 20% down. Suite income: Calgary $1,500/mo, Toronto $2,000/mo.
Once the mortgage is paid off, your only costs are property tax + maintenance. Suite income turns the house into a cash machine.
| Property | Tax + Maintenance |
Suite Income |
Net Monthly (Post-Payoff) |
Annual Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CG House $575K | $400 | -$1,500 | -$1,100 | +$13,200 |
| CG House $700K | $400 | -$1,500 | -$1,100 | +$13,200 |
| TO House $1M | $400 | -$2,000 | -$1,600 | +$19,200 |
Negative net monthly = positive cash flow. The house pays you to live in it.
Fig. 11b — Net monthly cost: 25yr vs 10yr amortization with suite
Fig. 11c — Monthly cost during payoff vs after (10yr amort, with suite)
The 10-year amortization reframes the entire comparison. Calgary $575K with suite at 10yr amort costs $3,781/mo — in the same ballpark as Toronto $1M at 25yr ($3,077/mo). But at year 10, Calgary’s mortgage hits $0 while Toronto still owes ~$527K. After payoff, the Calgary house pays you $1,100/mo to live in it. Toronto at 25yr won’t reach that point for another 15 years. Same decade of effort, radically different outcomes.
Section IX
A flowchart for figuring out what makes sense for us
Reference Tables
Quick reference tables with all the critical data
5% rate • 25-year amortization • 20% down (unless noted)
| Scenario | Down Pmt | Monthly Cost |
With Mkt Rate Suite |
5-Yr Profit (29%, suite) |
Annualized ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Condo $700K (5yr) | $140K | $4,274 | N/A | -$35K | -1.7% |
| Toronto Condo $700K (10yr) | $140K | $3,841 | N/A | +$83K* | 4.8%* |
| Toronto House $1M | $200K | $5,077 | $3,077 | +$131K | 5.4% |
| Calgary 2BR Condo $350K (5yr) | $70K | $2,237 | N/A | -$11K | -1.1% |
| Calgary 2BR Condo $350K (10yr) | $70K | $1,856 | N/A | +$62K* | 6.5%* |
| Calgary House $575K | $115K | $3,090 | $1,590 | +$106K | 8.2% |
| Calgary House $700K | $140K | $3,674 | $2,174 | +$115K | 7.1% |
| Rent + Business (vs $1M) | $0 | $2,740 | N/A | $1M–$2M* | varies |
* Condo 10yr rows use 66% appreciation (5.2%/yr) over 10-year hold. Toronto 10yr uses same appreciation assumption. Business row shows 10-year net worth range (conservative to optimistic).
| Metric | Richmond Hill / Markham |
Toronto | Calgary ($700K house) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down Payment (20%) | $200,000 | $200,000 | $140,000 |
| Land Transfer Tax | $16,475 | $32,950 | $0 |
| Total Monthly Cost | ~$5,629 | ~$5,648 | ~$3,949 |
| Basement Suite Income | $2,000/mo | $2,000/mo | $1,500/mo |
| Net Monthly (with suite) | ~$3,629 | ~$3,648 | ~$2,449 |
| Suite covers % of costs | 36% | 35% | 38% |
| Property Tax Rate | 0.70–0.74% | 0.754% | 0.618% |
| Basement 2-bed rent | $1,500–$2,400 | $1,500–$2,400 | $1,000–$1,500 |
The full waterfall: what the property is worth, what you owe, what cash you walk away with, what you spent, and your true profit
| TO Condo $700K |
TO House $1M |
CG 2BR Condo $350K |
CG House $575K |
CG House $700K |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What your property is worth | |||||
| Purchase Price | $700,000 | $1,000,000 | $350,000 | $575,000 | $700,000 |
| + 29% Appreciation | +$203,000 | +$290,000 | +$101,500 | +$166,750 | +$203,000 |
| = Appreciated Sale Price | $903,000 | $1,290,000 | $451,500 | $741,750 | $903,000 |
| What gets deducted at closing | |||||
| − Remaining Mortgage | -$461,771 | -$659,682 | -$230,890 | -$379,300 | -$461,771 |
| − Selling Costs (realtor, legal) | -$45,150 | -$64,500 | -$22,575 | -$37,088 | -$45,150 |
| = Cash You Receive | $396,079 | $565,818 | $198,035 | $325,362 | $396,079 |
| What you spent over 5 years | |||||
| Down Payment | $140,000 | $200,000 | $70,000 | $115,000 | $140,000 |
| Mortgage Payments (P&I) | $196,440 | $280,620 | $98,220 | $161,400 | $196,440 |
| Buying Closing Costs | $35,000 | $50,000 | $5,250 | $8,625 | $10,500 |
| Property Taxes (5 years) | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 |
| Maintenance / Condo Fees | $45,000 | $9,000 | $21,000 | $9,000 | $9,000 |
| = Total Cash Invested | $431,440 | $554,620 | $209,470 | $309,025 | $370,940 |
| True profit / loss | |||||
| Profit (No Suite) | -$35,361 | +$11,198 | -$11,435 | +$16,337 | +$25,139 |
| + Suite Income (5 years) | — | +$120,000 | — | +$90,000 | +$90,000 |
| True Profit (With Market Suite) | — | +$131,198 | — | +$106,337 | +$115,139 |
Read each table top to bottom. The appreciated sale price looks impressive ($1.29M on a $1M house) but after paying off the remaining mortgage and selling costs, you walk away with $565,818 in cash. Over 5 years you put in $554,620. Without a basement suite, your true profit is just $11,198—that’s a 1% return on half a million dollars. The suite income is what turns the math from break-even to real profit.
Same waterfall, longer timeline: compounding appreciation + more principal paid = dramatically better outcomes
| TO Condo $700K |
TO House $1M |
CG 2BR Condo $350K |
CG House $575K |
CG House $700K |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What your property is worth | |||||
| Purchase Price | $700,000 | $1,000,000 | $350,000 | $575,000 | $700,000 |
| + 66% Appreciation (5.2%/yr) | +$462,000 | +$660,000 | +$231,000 | +$379,500 | +$462,000 |
| = Appreciated Sale Price | $1,162,000 | $1,660,000 | $581,000 | $954,500 | $1,162,000 |
| What gets deducted at closing | |||||
| − Remaining Mortgage | -$369,000 | -$527,000 | -$185,000 | -$303,000 | -$369,000 |
| − Selling Costs (5%) | -$58,100 | -$83,000 | -$29,050 | -$47,725 | -$58,100 |
| = Cash You Receive | $734,900 | $1,050,000 | $366,950 | $603,775 | $734,900 |
| What you spent over 10 years | |||||
| Down Payment | $140,000 | $200,000 | $70,000 | $115,000 | $140,000 |
| Mortgage Payments (P&I × 120) | $392,880 | $561,240 | $196,440 | $322,800 | $392,880 |
| Buying Closing Costs | $35,000 | $50,000 | $5,250 | $8,625 | $10,500 |
| Property Taxes (10 years) | $30,000 | $30,000 | $30,000 | $30,000 | $30,000 |
| Maintenance / Condo Fees | $90,000 | $18,000 | $42,000 | $18,000 | $18,000 |
| = Total Cash Invested | $687,880 | $859,240 | $343,690 | $494,425 | $591,380 |
| True profit / loss | |||||
| Profit (No Suite) | +$47,020 | +$190,760 | +$23,260 | +$109,350 | +$143,520 |
| + Suite Income (10 years) | — | +$240,000 | — | +$180,000 | +$180,000 |
| True Profit (With Market Suite) | — | +$430,760 | — | +$289,350 | +$323,520 |
Time is the real game-changer. At 10 years, every single scenario is profitable—even the Toronto condo turns +$47K without a suite. The Toronto house with a $2K/mo suite generates +$431K in true profit. Calgary $575K with suite: +$289K. Sunk costs grow linearly while appreciation compounds—that’s why holding longer wins.
| Property & Scenario | Toronto | Calgary $575K | Calgary $700K |
|---|---|---|---|
| Condo, 14% appreciation | -$135,111 | -$61,310 | — |
| Condo, 29% appreciation | -$35,361 | -$11,435 | — |
| House, 14% appreciation | -$131,302 | -$65,600 | -$74,611 |
| House, 29% appreciation | +$11,198 | +$16,337 | +$25,139 |
| House, 29% + $1K/mo suite | +$71,198 | +$76,337 | +$85,139 |
| House, 29% + $1.5K/mo suite | +$101,198 | +$106,337 | +$115,139 |
| House, 29% + market suite ★ | +$131,198 | +$106,337 | +$115,139 |
Reference — Rate Sensitivity
How interest rates and amortization periods interact — every combination at a glance
The narrative sections use a 5% rate as a conservative stress test. But rates change. Below are the full matrices at 2.5%, 3%, 4%, and 5% across 10, 15, 20, and 25-year amortizations. Use these tables to see exactly what your monthly payment and total interest cost would be at any combination.
Monthly P&I Payment
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $3,589 | $4,240 | $5,336 | $7,541 |
| 3.0% | $3,794 | $4,436 | $5,525 | $7,726 |
| 4.0% ★ | $4,222 | $4,848 | $5,918 | $8,098 |
| 5.0% | $4,677 | $5,281 | $6,326 | $8,488 |
Total Interest (Life of Mortgage)
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $277K | $218K | $161K | $105K |
| 3.0% | $338K | $265K | $195K | $127K |
| 4.0% ★ | $467K | $363K | $265K | $172K |
| 5.0% | $603K | $467K | $339K | $219K |
Monthly P&I Payment
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $2,064 | $2,438 | $3,068 | $4,336 |
| 3.0% | $2,181 | $2,551 | $3,177 | $4,442 |
| 4.0% ★ | $2,428 | $2,787 | $3,403 | $4,656 |
| 5.0% | $2,690 | $3,037 | $3,637 | $4,881 |
Total Interest (Life of Mortgage)
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $159K | $125K | $92K | $60K |
| 3.0% | $194K | $152K | $112K | $73K |
| 4.0% ★ | $268K | $209K | $153K | $99K |
| 5.0% | $347K | $268K | $195K | $125K |
Monthly P&I Payment
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $2,512 | $2,968 | $3,735 | $5,278 |
| 3.0% | $2,656 | $3,105 | $3,867 | $5,408 |
| 4.0% ★ | $2,955 | $3,393 | $4,142 | $5,669 |
| 5.0% | $3,274 | $3,697 | $4,428 | $5,942 |
Total Interest (Life of Mortgage)
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $194K | $152K | $112K | $73K |
| 3.0% | $237K | $185K | $136K | $89K |
| 4.0% ★ | $327K | $254K | $186K | $120K |
| 5.0% | $422K | $326K | $237K | $153K |
Same $560K mortgage as Calgary $700K house above — identical P&I and interest figures. The difference is in maintenance: $750/mo condo fees vs $150/mo house maintenance.
Monthly P&I Payment
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $1,256 | $1,484 | $1,868 | $2,639 |
| 3.0% | $1,328 | $1,553 | $1,934 | $2,704 |
| 4.0% ★ | $1,478 | $1,697 | $2,071 | $2,834 |
| 5.0% | $1,637 | $1,848 | $2,214 | $2,972 |
Total Interest (Life of Mortgage)
| Rate | 25yr | 20yr | 15yr | 10yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | $97K | $76K | $56K | $37K |
| 3.0% | $118K | $93K | $68K | $45K |
| 4.0% ★ | $163K | $127K | $93K | $60K |
| 5.0% | $211K | $163K | $119K | $76K |
Total monthly = P&I + $250 property tax + $150 maintenance, minus suite income
| Scenario | Suite | 25yr Net | 20yr Net | 15yr Net | 10yr Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TO House $1M | $2,000 | $2,872 | $3,498 | $4,568 | $6,748 |
| CG House $575K | $1,500 | $1,328 | $1,687 | $2,303 | $3,556 |
| CG House $700K | $1,500 | $1,855 | $2,293 | $2,992 | $4,519 |
| CG 2BR Condo $350K | N/A | $2,078 | $2,297 | $2,671 | $3,434 |
$136K
Interest saved: TO $1M at 4% vs 5% (25yr)
$467K vs $603K
$455/mo
Payment drop: TO $1M at 4% vs 5% (25yr)
$4,222 vs $4,677
2×
Rate matters as much as amortization
4% × 15yr ≈ 5% × 20yr
★ = current market rate (~4% as of early 2026). The narrative analysis uses 5% as a conservative stress test—if the math works at 5%, it only gets better at lower rates. Use these tables to plug in your actual rate and preferred amortization. Note: a 1% rate drop at 25yr saves roughly the same as shortening from 25yr to 20yr at the same rate.